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  • 2025 BUDGET SPEECH
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GENERAL COMMENTARY ON THE BUDGET SPEECH 2025

2025 Budget 2.0:

The VAT increase is dead, long live the VAT increase

The shocks, surprises and shortfalls in the initial Budget that never saw the light of day on 19 February, made way for a reworked National Budget marked by cuts, compromises and curveballs.

Although Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s first Budget attempt three weeks ago was unexpectedly stopped in its tracks, mainly because several partners in the Government of National Unity (GNU) found the then proposed 2 percentage points increase in the VAT rate unacceptable, a higher VAT rate is still part of the Minister’s search for additional revenue this time around.

The Minister softened the blow, proposing a VAT increase of 0.5 percentage points in each of the next two years to bring the VAT rate to 16% by 2026/27. This is lower than the 17% it would have been had the 2 percentage points increase been implemented.

Additional Revenue

National Treasury explains in the 2025 Budget Review document a VAT increase “is indispensable for raising additional revenue of the required magnitude”. That being said, the adjustment to the VAT rate proposal required a reduction in the spending plans and a different mix of revenue measures.

Where Budget 1.0 aimed to raise an additional R58 billion in 2025/26, the reworked Budget proposes tax policy measures designed to raise R28 billion in additional revenue in 2025/26 and R14.5 billion in 2026/27.

The already over-burdened individual taxpayers will bear the brunt of strengthening the state coffers in 2025/26. Treasury will ensure an additional R19.5 billion in revenue by not adjusting the Personal Income Tax (PIT) brackets, rebates and medical tax credits for inflation.

Over the medium term the VAT increases will make up the bulk of additional revenue. In 2025/26 it is estimated to bring in R11.5 billion (after foregoing R2 billion by adding more zero-rated items to the food basket) and in 2026/27 an estimated R27 billion.

Additional revenue of R1 billion is expected from above-inflation increases in excise duties on alcohol and tobacco products, or so-called sin taxes.

These tax measures will enable additional funding in several key areas, including education, early childhood development, and health, Treasury says.

Strengthening SARS

The Minister said in his Budget Speech building on the progress made in revitalising SARS, the tax authority will be allocated R7.5 billion over the medium term, with R3.5 billion in the current financial year.

In 2025/26, SARS will focus on addressing the tax gap, estimated at a net gap of R800 billion, to improve revenue collection. This will be done by improving taxpayer compliance and trade facilitation by leveraging artificial intelligence, data science and deploying innovative technologies.

In reaction to this Commissioner Edward Kieswetter said SARS will engage with the Minister on what more needs to be rebuilt at SARS and where modernisation is needed to improve SARS’ efficiency with reducing debt and recruiting more skills to close the tax gap.

Tax revenue for 2024/25 is expected to be R1.85 trillion, which is R16.7 billion below the 2024 Budget expectations, reflecting weak economic outcomes.

Corporate tax receipts benefited from better-than-expected profitability but import VAT and fuel levy collections underperformed. Personal income tax collection grew at 12.6% over the first 11 months of 2024/25 compared with the same period in the prior year. This is attributed to larger-than-expected tax receipts from Retirement Savings Pot withdrawals after the Two Pot Retirement reforms came into effect on 1 September 2024. The amount of R11 billion collected, is almost double what was foreseen in the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October 2024.

Justifying the VAT increase

National Treasury explains increases in PIT and Corporate Income Tax (CIT) would been more negative for employment, savings, investment and growth than a VAT increase.

PIT collections at 9% of GDP, is far higher than those of most developing countries, and CIT collections as percentage of GDP is above 5%, versus 4% for OECD countries.

According to the Budget Review previous tax rate increases for PIT did not raise the expected revenue as taxpayers changed their behaviour to avoid the tax. It is harder to avoid a VAT increase, and the behavioural responses are lower, reducing the impact on the economy. Although CIT is imposed on businesses, it is ultimately paid by shareholders, workers and consumers.

Taking on additional debt to meet the spending pressures was also not feasible.

To provide relief for the tax increases, the most vulnerable households will be cushioned by real increases in social grants, continued fuel levy relief and an expansion of the list of VAT zero-rated foods to include, among others canned vegetables and edible offal.

Other tax policies

Other noteworthy amendments include the monetary thresholds for transfer duties which will be adjusted by 10% to compensate for inflation, the urban development zone tax incentive will be extended to 2030, and the Budget Review refers to the current treatment of cross-border retirement funds which may result in double non-taxation, particularly where South Africa is granted the taxing right by treaty.

Conclusion

Godongwana said the postponement of the Budget three weeks ago was regrettable, but perhaps an understandable feature of multiparty governance. He described it is a sign of a maturing and resilient democracy.

But the Minister’s warning was clear that over the medium term, new spending pressures must be funded “either through additional revenue increases or expenditure reductions or reprioritisations”.

Like previous years, the truth of this Budget is that there are no new sustainable streams of revenue collection identifiable for the immediate tax years ahead and economic growth holds the key to the future.

Darren Britz
Partner and Head of Tax Legal
(Admitted Attorney of the High Court of South Africa)

Richan Schwellnus
Tax Attorney
Admitted Attorney, BCom (Hons), LLB
General Tax Practitioner (SA)™ (SAIT)

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Controlled Foreign Companies –
South African Tax Considerations

Controlled Foreign Companies – South African Tax Considerations

South Africa’s tax system includes a Controlled Foreign Company (CFC) regime designed to address the taxation of income earned by foreign companies owned by South African tax residents.  

Where a South African tax resident holds or controls a foreign company, they may be subject to income tax in South Africa on the CFC’s foreign income, even if that income has not yet been distributed. This is an anti-avoidance measure to prevent South African tax residents from utilising foreign companies in the avoidance of South African tax.

What is a Controlled Foreign Company?

A CFC is broadly defined in section 9D of the Income Tax Act, No. 58 of 1962, as any foreign company where more than 50% of the total participation rights or voting rights are directly or indirectly held or exercisable by one or more South African tax residents.

Where this threshold is met, and unless a specific exemption applies, the net income of the CFC must be included in the income of the South African resident(s) in proportion to their participation rights, and taxed accordingly.

Taxpayers who fail to accurately account for a CFC’s income risk audit or reassessment by SARS, especially in light of increased global transparency and data sharing through mechanisms such as the Common Reporting Standard.

Key Features of the CFC Regime

  • Deemed Income Inclusion: The net income of a CFC is deemed to accrue to South African resident shareholders.
  • High Tax Exemption: A CFC’s income may be exempt from inclusion if it is subject to tax in a foreign jurisdiction at a rate of at least 67,5% of the South African tax that would have been payable, had the CFC been a resident of South Africa.
  • Foreign Business Establishment (FBE) Exemption: Income earned through a “foreign business establishment” may be exempt where the CFC carries on substantial economic activity in its foreign jurisdiction. This is a factual enquiry and subject to rigorous scrutiny by SARS.
  • Passive Income Rules: Passive income (such as interest, royalties, rental, and certain capital gains) is more likely to be caught by the CFC rules, particularly where there is no meaningful economic substance abroad.
  • Anti-Avoidance and Transfer Pricing: The CFC rules operate alongside other anti-avoidance provisions, including transfer pricing rules and the general anti-avoidance rules, ensuring that offshore structures with little commercial rationale may still be taxed in South Africa.
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Place of Effective Management and Corporate Tax Residency in South Africa

South Africa follows a residence-based system of taxation, meaning that resident companies are subject to tax on their worldwide income.

In terms of section 1 of the Income Tax Act, No. 58 of 1962 (the Act), a company is regarded as a South African tax resident if it is either:

  1. Incorporated, established or formed in South Africa; or
  2. Has its place of effective management (POEM) in South Africa,

unless a double tax agreement (DTA) provides otherwise.

The concept of POEM is central to determining a company’s tax residency, particularly where cross-border structures are involved. It affects both foreign companies with South African involvement and South African-incorporated entities that may be managed from abroad.

What is Place of Effective Management?

Although not defined in the Act, POEM has been interpreted through South African case law, SARS guidance, and international commentary, particularly the OECD Model Tax Convention and Commentary thereto.

Broadly, POEM refers to the location where key management and commercial decisions necessary for the conduct of the entity’s overall business are made, in substance and not merely in form.

The determination of POEM is a factual enquiry, and is not limited to formalities such as the registered office, place of incorporation, or location of board meetings. Instead, it focuses on:

  • Who exercises strategic control, and
  • Where such decisions are actually made and implemented.

Application in Cross-Border Contexts

POEM plays a critical role in determining corporate tax residency in both inbound and outbound scenarios:

  • Inbound structures: Foreign-incorporated companies may be deemed South African tax residents if their effective management is located in South Africa, which is often the case where South African shareholders or directors run the business.
  • Outbound structures: South African-incorporated companies may be treated as non-resident for tax purposes if their POEM is demonstrably situated offshore. However, this outcome requires real substance and consistent governance in the foreign jurisdiction.

Both scenarios must be carefully evaluated in light of South African domestic law and any applicable DTA.

Interaction with Double Tax Agreements

Where a company is regarded as resident in both South Africa and another jurisdiction, the relevant DTA will typically contain a tie-breaker clause to resolve the conflict.

Most of South Africa’s DTAs allocate tax residency to the country where the company’s POEM is located. However, some newer treaties apply a Mutual Agreement Procedure (MAP), requiring the tax authorities of both states to determine residence based on additional factors.

Correct DTA application is essential to avoid dual residency exposure and to obtain treaty relief on dividends, interest, royalties, and other income.

Practical Implications for Companies

Incorrect or dual tax residency status can expose a company to:

  • Double taxation on the same income across two jurisdictions;
  • Withholding tax complications, including denied treaty relief on dividends, interest, and royalties;
  • Increased scrutiny by SARS, especially in outbound structures where POEM may be artificially shifted offshore; and
  • Transfer pricing risk where management functions are split across jurisdictions.
×

Permanent Establishment – Tax Exposure in Cross-Border Contexts

As businesses expand across borders, one of the key tax risks they face is the inadvertent creation of a permanent establishment (PE) in a foreign jurisdiction. A PE may trigger foreign income tax exposure for a company even in the absence of incorporation or tax residency in that jurisdiction.

South African companies with offshore activities, or foreign companies with South African operations, must be aware of the PE concept, how it arises, and how it interacts with applicable Double Tax Agreements (DTAs).

What Is a Permanent Establishment?

A PE is generally defined in a DTA as a fixed place of business through which the business of an enterprise is wholly or partly carried on. Common examples include:

  • A branch, office, factory, workshop, or place of management;
  • A building site or construction project lasting more than a specified period (often 6 to 12 months); or
  • The presence of a dependent agent who regularly concludes contracts on behalf of the foreign entity.

South Africa’s DTAs typically follow the OECD Model Tax Convention, and many incorporate updated provisions from the Multilateral Instrument (MLI), which narrows common avoidance strategies and expands the scope of PE risk.

Inbound vs Outbound Permanent Establishment Risk

  • Inbound PE risk: A foreign company may be taxed in South Africa if its activities in South Africa amount to a PE under the applicable DTA. This could occur where there is a fixed place of business, staff performing core functions, or a local agent concluding contracts on behalf of the foreign entity.
  • Outbound PE risk: A South African company operating abroad may face foreign tax exposure if it is deemed to have created a PE in the foreign jurisdiction, for example through a warehouse, a project office, or local contractors under its control.

Even short-term or project-based activities can give rise to PE risks if not carefully managed and monitored.

Consequences of a Permanent Establishment Finding

If a PE is found to exist:

  • The host country gains taxing rights over the profits attributable to that PE;
  • The company may be subject to corporate income tax, VAT registration, and payroll compliance obligations in the foreign jurisdiction; and
  • Transfer pricing scrutiny may be triggered, especially in relation to intra-group transactions and profit attribution methods.

Non-compliance can result in penalties, double taxation, and reputational harm.

In a connected world, even limited physical or digital presence in a foreign country can create tax exposure. Managing PE risk is essential for international tax compliance and operational efficiency.

×

Controlled Foreign Companies –
South African Tax Considerations

South Africa’s tax system includes a Controlled Foreign Company (CFC) regime designed to address the taxation of income earned by foreign companies owned by South African tax residents.  

Where a South African tax resident holds or controls a foreign company, they may be subject to income tax in South Africa on the CFC’s foreign income, even if that income has not yet been distributed. This is an anti-avoidance measure to prevent South African tax residents from utilising foreign companies in the avoidance of South African tax.

What is a Controlled Foreign Company?

A CFC is broadly defined in section 9D of the Income Tax Act, No. 58 of 1962, as any foreign company where more than 50% of the total participation rights or voting rights are directly or indirectly held or exercisable by one or more South African tax residents.

Where this threshold is met, and unless a specific exemption applies, the net income of the CFC must be included in the income of the South African resident(s) in proportion to their participation rights, and taxed accordingly.

Taxpayers who fail to accurately account for a CFC’s income risk audit or reassessment by SARS, especially in light of increased global transparency and data sharing through mechanisms such as the Common Reporting Standard.

Key Features of the CFC Regime

  • Deemed Income Inclusion: The net income of a CFC is deemed to accrue to South African resident shareholders.
  • High Tax Exemption: A CFC’s income may be exempt from inclusion if it is subject to tax in a foreign jurisdiction at a rate of at least 67,5% of the South African tax that would have been payable, had the CFC been a resident of South Africa.
  • Foreign Business Establishment (FBE) Exemption: Income earned through a “foreign business establishment” may be exempt where the CFC carries on substantial economic activity in its foreign jurisdiction. This is a factual enquiry and subject to rigorous scrutiny by SARS.
  • Passive Income Rules: Passive income (such as interest, royalties, rental, and certain capital gains) is more likely to be caught by the CFC rules, particularly where there is no meaningful economic substance abroad.
  • Anti-Avoidance and Transfer Pricing: The CFC rules operate alongside other anti-avoidance provisions, including transfer pricing rules and the general anti-avoidance rules, ensuring that offshore structures with little commercial rationale may still be taxed in South Africa.
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